03/23: contact tracing at scale! 🚀
I’m Nick and this is your daily COVID-19 update. All data from JHU CCSE. If you find this newsletter useful or uplifting, please share it.
Europe
163 595 confirmed cases ( + 17 686 from yesterday)
12 700 recovered
8 762 deceased
Top affected countries
Questions we might ask ourselves
With the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths in Europe now exceeding those in China, there has been a rising number of discussions on how to interpret these numbers. Do they simply reflect the rising number of tests being performed, and should they thus be interpreted as no more than a lower-bound for the number of infected individuals within the population? Are the numbers so high because Europe waited too long before implementing lock-down measures? Has China been lying about their numbers and might the situation over there have been significantly worse than we thought?
It is impossible to answer such questions with any certainty. It strikes me that at this point, it would perhaps be more meaningful to focus on gathering reliable data on the what happens after the disease has run its course.
Here are some questions we might ask ourselves:
With regards to mortality rate:
Do all EU member states apply the same criteria when performing post-mortem evaluations to determine cause of death?
If significant differences exist between member states in determining cause of death, can we come up with ways to estimate the error-margins of the current mortality rates (which should perhaps be expressed relative to the number of patients admitted into ICU, since it appears unfeasible to measure the real infection rate within the population)?
Is there any reason to assume that the differences in mortality rate between EU member states are due to anything other than procedural differences? Are there potentially other underlying causes?
With regards to recovery rate:
How far are we removed from the large scale deployment of anti-body tests allowing us to identify those who have recovered from COVID-19 and have developed immunity?
Assuming limited availability of anti-body tests, what would be the best testing strategy?
Could we come up with creative ways to deploy immune individuals to support the management of the COVID-19 outbreak?
Each day I will share something that gives me hope. Something that inspires me in these challenging times. Sometimes that will be good news on COVID-19 (there is, and will be, good news!), resources to keep us busy during quarantine, or simply something I think might bring a spark of light to your day.
This is my way of saying: “Sure, the world’s on fire - but look, there’s also this”.
Contact-tracing at scale
One of the most important aspects in containing any viral outbreak is contact-tracing: identifying who has been in contact with a contagious host and isolating those individuals as soon as possible. The almost science-fiction like efficacy of their contact tracing is very likely the number one reason Singapore has managed the COVID-19 outbreak as well as they have, although their tracing system has recently come under increasing pressure due to a sharp increase in imported cases from Europe and surrounding ASEAN countries. Preparing for this eventuality, the Singaporean government has developed a mobile tracing app which anonymously logs each user’s location and calculates their physical proximity and exposure time to all other users of the app. Over the last two days, almost a million users have signed up for the app.
Once a COVID-19 case has been confirmed, the Singaporean government used the application to digitally trace that person to anyone who might have been exposed to them, and ordering all of those individuals to immediately quarantine themselves at home for 14 days (these so-called “Stay Home Notices” are adhered to 100% of the time, thanks to systematic checks and follow-ups combined with severe and immediate punitive measures).
The good news, is that Singapore has opted to not keep this app to themselves - but rather to share it freely with the world, in the hopes that it may enable more efficient tracing efforts by other governments! In a Facebook post, Minister-in-charge of the Smart Nation Initiative Vivian Balakrishnan has announced that the app will be open-sourced and made freely available to be redistributed and modified.
Coping with home confinement
As it turns out, being confined to one’s home is no easy task. Let alone when one suddenly has to manage kids that are home-schooled, or adjust to conditions that are almost certainly suboptimal for remote work (for those of us fortunate enough to have professional activities that can be done from home).
But listen - there’s plenty of reasons to keep your hopes up! After all, South Korea has just reported the lowest daily number of infections, Xiaomi is reopening its 1,800 stores across China and some even cautiously note that Italy’s infection rate and death toll appear to be slowing! Although we’re not yet out of the woods, these are all clear signs that there is light at the end of the tunnel at least. This too shall pass!
Although advice on how to deal with the home confinement may generally appear pretty generic, some of it certainly makes sense from a behavioural and cognitive psychology perspective. Yesterday’s article on wral.com for example, featuring “tips from Astronauts” on how to deal with self-isolation listed the following suggestions:
Make time to connect, Follow a schedule, Stay busy
These three points come up over and over again and are, in sorts, the trifecta of dealing with many challenging circumstances. Connecting with friends and family (even on the phone or over video) strongly heightens our emotional ability to cope, following a schedule relieves us any lack of structure and purpose we might experience, and there is certainly spades of truth to the age-old adage claiming that a “busy mind is a happy mind”.
For those of use who might not have anyone to talk to (loneliness is unfortunately one of the more important problems of the 21st century), it is good to know that applications exist that can get you the support you need at the click of a button. Talkspace, for example, a really great app allowing you to quickly talk to a licensed therapist, has just launched a COVID-19 Anxiety Management program which I highly recommend to anyone suffering emotionally from the COVID-19 outbreak.
If you’re not quite ready to talk to another human being (they’re scary, I know), you should perhaps check out Headspace, an absolutely fantastics application for mindfulness meditation. Headspace features has many great lessons to help one deal with, and reduce, anxiety - as well as exercises to improve quality of sleep. If that sounds like a bunch of woo-woo, think again: the science behind Headspace’s approach is actually very solid!
So whether you’d prefer to talk to someone, or just create some more calm and tranquility within your own mind - I really cannot recommend these apps highly enough. They’re guaranteed to give you that extra little push in dealing with your home confinement!
That’s it for today! Wash your hands and, please, be kind 🥰
Nick